Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Global Tensions Rising: China and Japan

Things seem to be escalating quickly over a group of islands, with one Chinese general telling his troops to prepare for war with Japan. This looks awfully calculated given the other aggressive actions in the region, but there is a component to it that is not traditional posturing. Instead it is an aspect of asymmetrical warfare being given a test run with Japan as a proxy for the United States.  Asymmetrical warfare involves using methods other than overt military force to bring down a foe perceived as more powerful. Propaganda, cyber warfare, and attacks on financial infrastructure are all key parts of this approach.

The latest tiff has led to threats of using Chinese ownership of Japanese government debt to bring them to their knees. Do not think this is disconnected from the U.S.A., for yesterday’s demonstrations briefly attacked the Ambassador to China’s car. The demonstrators knew what they were doing and chanted anti-American slogans during the incident.

With the two largest American bond holders in an intense war of words that could go hot to some degree (how hot? Ask the Chinese.), this is not something that should be ignored right now. The threats being made to undermine Japan’s economy can be made against us.

It should be noted that such a threat only works if a war does not actually follow. In war time, all debts to an enemy are declared void. Quite a tricky balancing act for China’s rulers, eh?

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